Mathematical frontiersGerman schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA's asteroid figures

Published 30 April 2008

NASA estimated the chances of the Apophis asteroid hitting Earth in 2036 at 1 in 45,000; Nico Marquardt, 13 years old, says the chance is 1 in 450; the reason: On 13 April 2029, when Apophis will be closest to Earth, it may collide with one of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth; if it does, this collision would change its trajectory, making it hit Earth on its next orbit in 2036

Talking about math and science education, here is an interesting story which you may have missed: A 13-year-old German schoolboy corrected NASA’s estimates of the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth. Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth. NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000. According to German newspapers, a NASA scientist told the agency’s sister organization, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young school kid would be correct if — and this is a very big “if” (see below) — Apophis were to collide with a man-made satellite. The schoolboy took into consideration the risk of Apophis running into one or more of the 40,000 satellites orbiting Earth during its path close to the planet on 13 April 2029. Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometers a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometers above earth — and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometers. Now, if the asteroid strikes a satellite in 2029, that will change its trajectory making it hit Earth on its next orbit in 2036.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 meters (1,049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tons, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean. The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, while creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely. The 13-year old made his discovery as part of a regional science competition for which he submitted a project entitled: “Apophis — The Killer Astroid.”

Gregory Mone writes in Popular Science that the space agency, while admitting the theoretical possibility of Marquardt’s scenario, said that the probability of that scenario was so remote that there was no reason for the agency to change its original calculations. From the official statement of NASA:

Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate. This student’s conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid’s close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.

By the way: What does Nico want to do when he grows up? He wants to work for NASA, but he is worried. In his own words: “Ich will eines Tages für die NASA arbeiten. Das ist eine großartige Organisation und ich hab schon ein bisschen Angst, dass mir diese Geschichte nachhängt.” Our advice to young Nico: Don’t worry about NASA holding your correction of their Apophis collision estimates against you; worry instead about the United States correcting its immigration policies so that you will be eligible for an H1-B visa.