U.S. Air Force contemplates an all-UAV future
Published 20 July 2009
In a new study released last week, the U.S. Air Force sketches out possible drone development through the year 2047, envisioning a radical future in which ever-larger and more sophisticated flying robots could eventually replace every type of manned aircraft in its inventory
The proposed 2010 Pentagon budget is historic in that, for the first time, it allocates more money to acquiring unmanned systems than manned ones (this should be qualified: if those members of Congress who oppose Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’s decision to limit the number of F-22 Raptors the U.S. Air Force would buy are successful, and the number of Raptors acquired is increased, then the balance between manned and unmanned system would favor the manned systems).
The current fight over the F-22 notwithstanding, David Axe writes that an Air Force study, released without much fanfare last Wednesday, suggests that tomorrow’s dogfighters might not have pilots in the cockpit. The Unmanned Aircraft System Flight Plan. which sketches out possible drone development through the year 2047, comes with many qualifications, but it envisions a radical future. in the 82-page study, the Air Force explains how ever-larger and more sophisticated flying robots could eventually replace every type of manned aircraft in its inventory — everything from speedy, air-to-air fighters to lumbering bombers and tankers.
Axe notes that the emphasis is on “might” and “could.” While revealing how robots can equal the capabilities of traditional planes, the Air Force is careful to emphasize that an all-bot air fleet is not inevitable. Rather, drones will represent “alternatives” to manned planes, in pretty much every mission category.
Axe writes that some of the missions tapped for possible, future drones are currently considered sacrosanct for human pilots. Namely: dogfighting and nuclear bombing. Drones “are unlikely to replace the manned aircraft for air combat missions in the policy-relevant future,” Manjeet Singh Pardesi wrote in Air & Space Power Journal, just four years ago. Dogfighting was considered too fluid, too fast, for a drone’s narrow “situational awareness.” As for nuclear bombing: “Many aviators, in particular, believe that a ‘man in the loop’ should remain an integral part of the nuclear mission because of the psychological perception that there is a higher degree of accountability and moral certainty with a manned bomber,” Adam Lowther explained in Armed Forces Journal, in June.
Despite this, the Air Force identifies a future “MQ-Mc” Unmanned Aerial System for dogfighting, sometime after 2020. The MQ-Mc will also handle “strategic attack,” that is, nuclear bombing. Less controversial is the conjectural MQ-L, a huge drone that could fill in for today’s tankers and transports.
Just because a drone could replace a manned plane, doesn’t necessarily mean it definitely will. “We do not envision replacing all Air Force aircraft with UAS,” Col. Eric Mathewson told Danger Room by email. “We do plan on considering UAS as alternatives to traditionally manned aircraft across a broad spectrum of Air Force missions … but certainly not all.” In other words, in coming years drones might be able to do everything today’s manned planes can do — technically speaking. But the Air Force still might find good reasons — moral, financial or otherwise - to keep people in some cockpits.
